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Intel: Another TV marriage with the PC that won't work

PC and chip companies have been trying to get TV viewers to use internet functions on their home entertainment systems for years. The problem may be that people who watch television are old. Consumers who use PCs are young. That has not stopped repeated attempts to marry the two.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) are making another run at putting the two technologies together and it will probably fail. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The pair outlined software tools, based on Yahoo technology, to help companies deliver Web content alongside TV programming. The software complements a new chip from Intel designed to enable interactive features on TVs."

Under this new plan, web content will sit in a bar at the bottom of the screen.

TV viewers already see information at the bottom of their TV monitors. Most business news channels like CNBC use the space to run stock quotes. Sports programming often scrolls scores in that section of the screen. Those bits of information may be useful, but TV is still a passive experience.

People who sit in front of a television set want information and entertainment. They do not want to have to make any effort to get those things. The PC has hundreds of applications that involve a great deal of effort. The keyboard is an "active" feature. People sitting in lounge chairs to watch the tube want to fall asleep.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Will $6 billion in losses sink an airline or two?

Even with some modest recovery in airline stocks, it may be too early to celebrate. The worst may not be over for the industry.

The International Air Transport Association says that global losses for airlines could top $6.1 billion this year. The Wall Street Journal quotes ATA Chief Executive and Managing Director Giovanni Bisignani as saying "We are bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing" amid higher fuel prices and lower revenue.

The slowdown is apparently moving to Asia, a major destination for many large US and EU airlines.

United (NASDAQ: UAUA) is a good example of a US airline that many thought would be on the rebound. New fear of rising oil prices has spoiled that a bit. After falling from a 52-week high of $51.60, shares crashed to $2.80. They have recently made a minor recovery to $12.40. But, in the last two days, UAUA shares have been off sharply.

Oil is still just below $120. Even at that level, down from $143, airlines face huge increases in fuel prices over last year. A modest disruption in oil supply could send prices back up again.

The market sees US airline stocks as having potential for big returns. But, with the price of oil making a potential bottom, the carriers are still in too much trouble to have a real recovery. Buying shares in the companies still offers more risk than reward. The industry may still have operators which have valuations heading toward zero.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Comcast (CMCSA): Still shutting down the heavy internet user

First Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) tried to cut off customers using peer-to-peer file sharing services. They ate up too much bandwidth and slowed down the cable company's network. At least that is what Comcast said.

The FCC did not like the Comcast approach and asked it to fix the matter. Comcast still says it has congestion problems and wants to handle them using a new method. According to Bloomberg, the cable guys "plans to slow service to its heaviest Internet users during periods of congestion after regulators ordered the company to devise a new method for managing its Web traffic."

If the traffic load in one area of the network becomes too great, big users could see their service dialed back to slower speeds for as long as 20 minutes.

Consumers will get bent out of shape because they reason that everyone should have unlimited access to the Internet, especially if they are paying $30 a month for broadband. But, that avoids an acknowledgment of the practical parts of the system. Internet "pipes" are only so big. If they become clogged, none of the users win.

The Comcast plan is fair and reasonable. If people want super-fast speeds all the time, they should pay for it. That is the only way for the cable company to undertake the work of upgrading its network without hurting its shareholders.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

A strike may be Boeing's (BA) next problem

Airlines may not get the Boeing (NYSE: BA) Dreamliner on its new revised schedule after all. The plane has been delayed three times because of manufacturing and supplier glitches. If Boeing has problems with one of its unions it might have to push back the launch date again. Some airlines are already asking Boeing for compensation for the late deliveries.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "With its aircraft order books so full that some customers must wait as long as five years for deliveries, Boeing can ill afford a strike -- especially one that could further delay the rollout of its new 787 Dreamliner jet."

At the center of the negotiations are pay and pensions, making them little different from most such talks. But the solution for both sides could involve an incentive.

Boeing does not want to be faced with a strike that could hurt its revenue. The unions want a bigger piece of Boeing's sales pie. Boeing should return to the bargaining table with a simple proposal. If its new jets are delivered on time, wages will go up at a rate close to the union's requests. If not, the increases will be lower.

Boeing could set up a partnership with its labor force driven by the common goal of product launches. That is better than a strike that does neither the union nor Boeing any good.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Earlier analyst calls (MS) (GS) (LEH)

Citigroup increased its estimates for losses at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Lehman (NYSE: LEH), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), according to MarketWatch.

Piper Jaffray downgraded Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) to Neutral from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news service also reported that Bank of America intiated Amerigroup (NYSE: AGP ) at Neutral.

Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) was cut to Sell at Citigroup, according to 24/7 Wall St.

GM: New warranties plus new incentive equal no recovery

General Motors (NYSE: GM) has just announced that it will extend warranties on may of it used cars. According to Reuters, "GM said it would begin offering a 12-month, 12,000-mile "bumper-to-bumper" warranty on all used cars and trucks certified as eligible for the repair coverage by participating GM dealers." The firm has already said it will return to the extensive use of incentives to clear out new car inventory.

GM should have a better solution than to lose more money on each new car it sells and add costs to market its used products. It turns out that is not the case. Vehicle sales in the U.S. are just too awful and Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) take more market share each month.The talk of GM doing into Chapter 11 rings a bit more true as the time passes.

GM is now out of options. It still makes money overseas, but that is overwhelmed but its North American deficit. GM says it will stick to supporting all of its brands except the Hummer. That may end up not being true. GM did say it was moving away from incentives. It did not work out terribly well.

GM has a couple of brands that still sell only a modest number of cars. Saab is one. Saturn in another. Saab could be sold. Saturn could be closed. Saturn might not even be missed.

If GM has to continue using incentives, it will get to the point where it cannot support the marketing and product development costs of all of its brands. That point is probably coming in the next quarter.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Intel (INTC): A new chip no one wants

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is beginning to offer its new "Atom" chip, which is designed to work in "low-end "netbooks" and other mobile computing devices, " according to the FT.

The trouble is that it is a chip for devices that no one wants.

Intel is trying to drive a wedge between low-end laptops that weigh only a couple of pounds and new smartphones like the products from RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) and just about every other large handset company. The new smartphones can access the internet and use WiFi hotspots instead of the cellular system, access 3G broadband wireless, and read e-mail and attachments. Cheap laptops now cost as little as $500.

Intel is up against a PC market that is growing more slowly each year, especially in large markets like North American and Europe. It has decided to launch a product in the hope the new devices will come along because the chip is available.

Unfortunately, no one wants the products that Atom would drive. The niche is already crowded.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Fold Palm; license the brand

Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) is dead. That has been written before, but now the company needs an official funeral mass. According to The New York Times, "Palm's chief executive, will announce the debut of a new smartphone primarily for business customers - the Treo Pro." The company also has several other handsets in development.

Palm is now up against smartphone products from much larger companies like Samsung and Nokia (NYSE: NOK). Not to mention the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone.

In the last year, Palm had an operating loss of $105 million on a shrinking revenue base that fell to $1.32 billion. The company has $398 million in current and long-term debt.

Palm is not going to make it as an operating company, but it might be a good licensing entity. That would involve cutting almost all of the company's staff and licensing its brand and product designs to another company, perhaps Samsung or LG. The Palm name still carries some modest weight in the U.S.

Palm's revenue might drop to $100 million, but its costs would be negligible. It would, at least, make a profit, which is something that is out of the question with the company in its current form.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

U.S. cellphone sales dive, especially for Motorola

With all of the success of the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and the RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) BlackBerry, investors would think cellphone sales in the U.S. are booming. That assumption is wrong.

In the second quarter, handset sales in the U.S. fell 13% according to NPD Group, dropping to 28 million units. According to The Wall Street Journal, "That is the lowest number of phones sold in a quarter since NPD began tracking the category in 2005."

Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) market share fell from 32% last year to 21% in the second quarter this year.

The news shows the extent to which handset companies will have to rely on sales in emerging markets like China if they are going to continue to growing. Although recent figures for Europe are hard to come by, it is likely that sales growth there has slowed or has gone negative. In both the U.S. and EU there are almost as many cellphones as there are people and the economy is making it harder to sell replacement handsets.

While the new numbers say more a great deal about the near-term future of the major handset companies and the challenges they face for earnings, the data speaks volumes about Motorola. The company has modest market share outside the U.S. and its domestic market has been its salvation. That is clearly no longer the case.

Motorola plans to spin-off its handset unit next year. But its revenue is falling at the rate of about a third compared to last year and it loses several hundred million dollars a quarter. If the U.S. market turns against the company, shareholders have to ask if the unit has any value at all.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Early analyst calls (LLY) (DISH)

HSBC upgrades KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Overweight from Neutral, according to Briefing.com. The news services also reports that Caris initiates Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) with a Below Average rating.

Comverge (NASDAQ: COMV) was cut to Neutral at Broadpoint Capital, according to 247wallst.com. DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) was cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.

Another FDA failure as Lilly drug causes more deaths

When should the FDA pull a drug off the market? When one person dies from side-effects? How about two or three?

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLN) produce a highly successful diabetes drug called Byetta. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The Food and Drug Administration on Monday said it has received six new reports of patients developing a dangerous form of pancreatitis while taking Byetta."

Two of the patients died.

The drug makers said that the poor results were very rare. The people who got sick probably view it a little differently.

There have been questions for some time about whether the FDA does an effective job of regulating drug companies. The problems with Byetta say that the answer is "no." A drug, which causes even one death, yet stays on the market speaks volumes about how the consumer's interests are cast aside.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Sentiment of U.S. car quality goes negative

One of the few hopes the U.S. car companies have had is that they have been perceived as closing the quality gap with Japanese models. Recent JP Power data shows Detroit running in a dead heat with imports in the consumer satisfaction race.

That bubble has been at least partially burst due to new information from the University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index. According to the AP, "U.S. car buyers are growing less satisfied with their purchases from domestic automakers while their Asian and European competitors continue to improve."

In the new survey, BMW and Lexus tied for the top spot followed by Honda (NYSE: HMC) and Toyota (NYSE: TM). Several brands from GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) dropped down the rankings.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Detroit is in such deep trouble that a perceived drop in the quality of its cars can only make its recovery more difficult. There are several ways around that, but none of them are very palatable.

GM yesterday introduced buyer incentives across most of its brands. That means its margins on those vehicles will be lower. It may pick up some market share, but any victory there will be costly. The U.S. car companies are cutting their marketing budgets, so they cannot "advertise" their way out of the problem.

Effectively giving cars away can certainly help hurdle the quality barrier, but losing a lot more money could sink a large U.S. auto company.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Expert expects a big bank failure -- could it be WB or WM?

Several independent economists have said they expect a big U.S. bank to fail. It may be easy to ignore them because they are not affiliated with any of the large institutions that monitor financial companies. But now the former chief economist of the IMF says one of America's big banks will probably not make it.

According to Reuters, "The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said." Rogoff is currently an economist at Harvard.

The analysis pointing to the bank failure is based on the facts that the credit markets and housing situation will get much worse. Current earnings from banks and brokerage houses indicate that the prediction may well be true.

Continue reading Expert expects a big bank failure -- could it be WB or WM?

Early analyst calls (MA) (HPQ)

Analyst Shaw Wu of American Technology Research said his firm's checks with suppliers indicate some weakness in HP's (NYSE: HPQ) inkjet sales and consumer PCs in the U.S, according to the AP.

UBS downgraded Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Neutral from Buy, according to Briefing.com. The news service also writes that Calyon initiated MEMC Electonic (NYSE: WFR) as a "Buy".

Goldman Sachs upgraded Mastercard (NYSE: MA) from "Hold" to "Buy", according to StreetInsider.com.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Closing bell: The beatings will continue; GM, FRE, FNM, SNDK drop big

Investors in shares of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) went wild on speculation today that the government would put new funds into the mortgage agencies and wipe out common shareholders. The market was dragged down over 200 points at some point on a ripple of concerns about the financial sector:

Dow: 11,479.88 -1.54%
NASDAQ 2,416.98 -1.45%
S&P 500: 1,278.71 -1.50%
52-Week Lows

Early in the day, the chance of a hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico pushed oil up and knocked equities down. Once the storm moved over Florida and away from deep-water rigs, oil went back down.

The trading was so bleak and depressing that most traders probably went home to watch the last few events of the Olympics. Those who stayed saw a few notable moves:

Continue reading Closing bell: The beatings will continue; GM, FRE, FNM, SNDK drop big

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-10.7511,406.68
NASDAQ-8.702,380.38
S&P 500+1.141,275.68

Last updated: August 21, 2008: 02:30 PM

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